Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 4.027230 4.391849 4.795848 5.281001 5.853737 6.516123 7.351989
2025-01-26 3.584053 4.068761 4.645037 5.395917 6.373078 7.640535 9.482776
2025-02-02 3.368189 3.935107 4.644908 5.630196 7.020123 9.018214 12.361205
2025-02-09 3.180336 3.795901 4.597485 5.767393 7.532858 10.315878 15.670077
2025-02-16 2.964303 3.589856 4.426837 5.692850 7.701509 11.106502 18.499065
2025-02-23 2.795000 3.426701 4.291744 5.641865 7.883602 11.956400 21.985335
2025-03-02 2.648794 3.280887 4.163529 5.578733 8.025105 12.765094 26.029953
2025-03-09 2.523227 3.153197 4.047993 5.517481 8.152939 13.582985 30.959630
2025-03-16 2.426085 3.058163 3.971136 5.506883 8.367386 14.663516 38.305970
2025-03-23 2.366235 3.011931 3.962498 5.606479 8.809703 16.469068 52.679696
2025-03-30 2.263198 2.895832 3.836767 5.488982 8.790602 17.078558 62.840170
2025-04-06 2.169190 2.788079 3.716798 5.369427 8.747125 17.614577 75.078178
2025-04-13 2.062192 2.657633 3.555905 5.167149 8.505563 17.517522 82.691015
2025-04-20 2.027246 2.633916 3.564068 5.274226 8.973922 19.921305 142.671117
2025-04-27 2.017168 2.646872 3.631726 5.499362 9.772361 24.149914 469.750859
2025-05-04 1.989796 2.631203 3.650196 5.631229 10.380025 28.335264 35407.842506
2025-05-11 1.929368 2.560690 3.571203 5.559579 10.437667 30.055448 NaN
2025-05-18 1.876830 2.500405 3.506278 5.510560 10.549916 32.252427 NaN
2025-05-25 1.825828 2.440481 3.438690 5.449847 10.618870 34.356330 NaN
2025-06-01 1.778255 2.384222 3.374585 5.390923 10.683716 36.608302 NaN
2025-06-08 1.740956 2.343079 3.334905 5.380727 10.896364 40.343637 NaN
2025-06-15 1.721345 2.329737 3.343654 5.476532 11.468860 48.422572 NaN
2025-06-22 1.672971 2.267593 3.261602 5.363503 11.334799 49.720616 NaN